Ringgit stays above RM3.90 as markets brace for more Middle East volatility

KUALA LUMPUR, March 3 — The Malaysian ringgit traded marginally higher against the U.S. dollar today, maintaining levels above RM3.90 even as global markets were influenced by risk‑off sentiment amid the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, according to Bernama.

At 8am local time, the ringgit was quoted at 3.9210/9340 against the greenback, a slight improvement from yesterday’s closing rate of 3.9225/9295, signalling relative stability on the local unit despite turbulent conditions abroad.

Economists attribute the market’s cautious tone to sustained geopolitical tensions, which have triggered sharp movements in global oil prices and prompted investors to seek safe‑haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold. Although crude markets have exhibited volatility — with Brent crude trading higher as concerns over supply disruptions persist — the ringgit has shrugged off extreme weakness thus far.

Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd, noted that although oil prices soared on fears of interruptions to key supply routes, market attention has pivoted toward how major central banks could react to emerging inflation pressures without stalling global growth. “The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering at 98.38 points, slightly above last week’s levels of around 97 points, underpinning dollar strength which typically puts pressure on emerging market currencies,” he told Bernama.

Yesterday, the ringgit closed up about 0.9 per cent from Friday’s levels, a sign that the local unit has shown resilience despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, and inflationary expectations. Dr. Afzanizam projected that the currency could continue trading above RM3.90 — likely oscillating between RM3.90 and RM3.95 in the near term if the conflict shows no immediate signs of de‑escalation.

In early Asian currency markets, the ringgit exhibited mixed performance against other major currencies. It appreciated against the euro, strengthening to 4.5852/6004 from Monday’s 4.6031/6113, and gained ground versus the Japanese yen, quoted at 2.4928/5014, up from 2.4984/5032 previously. However, the ringgit edged lower against the British pound, trading at 5.2573/2747 compared with 5.2460/2553 previously.

Against ASEAN currency peers, the local note posted modest gains: it strengthened versus the Singapore dollar to 3.0809/0916 from 3.0854/0912 and was slightly firmer against the Philippine peso at 6.73/6.76, compared with 6.74/6.76. It was little changed against the Indonesian rupiah, but eased somewhat versus the Thai baht.

Market observers say that escalating Middle East tensions have broader implications for Malaysia’s economy, particularly if the conflict persists and continues to influence global energy prices and logistics. Malaysian stakeholders have cautioned that prolonged instability could result in higher import costs and logistics challenges if shipping and air routes through conflict zones remain disrupted.

Additionally, Malaysia’s heavy reliance on imported energy exposes domestic prices and inflation to volatile swings in global oil markets, as conflict‑related supply concerns have driven Brent crude prices sharply higher in recent sessions.

Bank Negara Malaysia’s upcoming policy decision will be closely watched by analysts, who expect that central bank guidance on interest rates and monetary stance could be a key driver of the ringgit’s performance in the coming weeks. The interplay between geopolitical risk, global monetary policy, and economic fundamentals will remain central to currency market dynamics as the situation continues to unfold.

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