Kuala Lumpur — The US economy added 115,000 new jobs in April, significantly exceeding economists’ forecasts despite global energy turmoil caused by the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
The figure is nearly double what analysts had predicted, signaling the resilience of the American labor market even as rising gasoline prices weighed on consumer spending. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
After large swings in recent months — including a loss of 156,000 jobs in February and a gain of 185,000 in March — April’s data shows a solid recovery. Following revisions, the three-month average job growth stands at 48,000, in line with the “breakeven” level needed to absorb new entrants into the workforce.
The strong performance was driven mainly by the retail sector, as well as transportation and warehousing, reflecting consumer resilience despite higher fuel costs triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Market and Analyst Reactions
The positive news immediately lifted US stock markets. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%.
Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, described the data as encouraging. “Retail and transportation sectors provide a healthy picture of discretionary spending, even with pressure from higher gasoline prices,” he said. However, he also noted mixed signals such as slower wage growth and declining labor force participation.
Meanwhile, Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics expects job growth to slow in the coming months. He forecasts the unemployment rate could rise to 4.7% by the end of the year, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates from December.
Outlook
The data strengthens expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for now to control inflation. Nevertheless, economists remain cautious about the longer-term impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on the US economy.
The US labor market appears stable and even potentially strengthening, but challenges such as high energy prices and slowing hiring could test the economy in the second half of 2026.
